Because of immigrants and temporary residents, Canada’s population continues to rise. As of July 1, Canada’s population stood at 40,097,761, just shy of surpassing 40 million in June 2023.
Compare that to the population of 38,939,056 on July 1, 2022. Year on year, the population increased by 1,158,705 individuals, representing a 2.9 percent growth rate.
This is the highest 12-month growth rate recorded in Canada since 1957. In 1957, during the Hungarian refugee crisis and the height of the baby boom, the population growth rate was 3.3 percent.
The absolute rise over the last year has more than doubled the 1957 total, reaching around 555,000 additional persons. If this pace of population increase continues, Canada’s population will have doubled in 25 years, highlighting the significance of this demographic explosion.
Canada’s population growth thanks to international migration
Looking at a full year of growth, from July 1, 2022, to July 1, 2023, net international migration accounted for about 98 percent of Canada’s population increase—this includes both temporary and permanent residents. Only 2% of the rise was due to the difference in births and deaths.
Statistics Canada issued new Canadian demographic estimates on September 27. The new data tables include the previously unaccounted-for 1 million temporary residents. They account for delays spent after permits expire and include family members living with permission holders.
Non-permanent residents are projected to number around 2.2 million. The majority of the 46 percent increase from 2022 is due to an increase in employment and study permits.
As a result of Russia’s continuous invasion of Ukraine, tens of thousands of Ukrainians have moved to Canada. Many of them have permits, while others are relatives of permission holders.
With these estimates, the number of non-permanent residents now exceeds the 1.8 million Indigenous people counted in the 2021 Census.
Provincial population growth in Canada
Alberta had the fastest year-over-year population growth of any province or territory, with a 4% increase. This expansion can be attributed not just to international migration but also to net gains from migratory exchanges across provinces. The province had 56,245 more people move in than leave, setting a record for the largest yearly net interprovincial gains since data collection began in 1971-1972.
In fact, with a 3.9 percent increase, Prince Edward Island led the way in the Maritime provinces, followed by Nova Scotia (3.2 percent) and New Brunswick (3.1 percent).
Ontario and British Columbia experienced 3% growth, after Alberta and the Maritimes. Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the Prairie Provinces, followed closely behind with 2.9 percent and 2.6 percent growth, respectively.
Despite having the highest population growth rate in over 50 years (2.3 percent), Quebec has the second lowest growth rate among all Canadian provinces. Despite having the largest population growth in more than five decades, Newfoundland and Labrador recorded the slowest growth at 1.3 percent.
Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia have the biggest populations of non-permanent residents as of July 1, 2023. Close to one million non-permanent residents lived in Ontario alone, with almost half a million in Quebec and roughly 400,000 in British Columbia.
Canada’s demographic challenges remain.
In 2022, fertility rates reached a new low, with an average of 1.33 children born per female. In 2021, the median number of births was 1.44. To increase a population through birth, the average birthrate must be at least 2.1 births per female.
The population of those 65 and older is quickly expanding, especially as the largest cohorts of baby boomers approach that age. In recent years, the number of people aged 65 and more has surpassed those aged 0 to 14.
The low birth rate and elderly population of Canada have long been cited to justify large amounts of immigration. Without newcomers from other countries, Canada’s population would not rise through births. As more baby boomers retire, this will create voids in the labor market.
Implications for Canadian immigration policy
Understanding the shifting demographics of Canada remains critical for governments, businesses, and communities across the country.
Canada has undergone unprecedented population growth. Canada has not only reached a historic milestone of more than 40 million people, but it has also experienced the greatest population growth rate since 1957.
All of these concerns will almost probably figure into debates about the 2024-2026 Immigration Levels Plan, which will be released on November 1, 2023.
